Competing risks analysis for neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio as a predictor of diabetic retinopathy incidence in the Scottish population.

BACKGROUND: Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a major sight-threatening microvascular complication in individuals with diabetes. Systemic inflammation combined with oxidative stress is thought to capture most of the complexities involved in the pathology of diabetic retinopathy. A high level of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) is an indicator of abnormal immune system activity. Current estimates of the association of NLR with diabetes and its complications are almost entirely derived from cross-sectional studies, suggesting that the nature of the reported association may be more diagnostic than prognostic. Therefore, in the present study, we examined the utility of NLR as a biomarker to predict the incidence of DR in the Scottish population. METHODS: The incidence of DR was defined as the time to the first diagnosis of R1 or above grade in the Scottish retinopathy grading scheme from type 2 diabetes diagnosis. The effect of NLR and its interactions were explored using a competing risks survival model adjusting for other risk factors and accounting for deaths. The Fine and Gray subdistribution hazard model (FGR) was used to predict the effect of NLR on the incidence of DR. RESULTS: We analysed data from 23,531 individuals with complete covariate information. At 10 years, 8416 (35.8%) had developed DR and 2989 (12.7%) were lost to competing events (death) without developing DR and 12,126 individuals did not have DR. The median (interquartile range) level of NLR was 2.04 (1.5 to 2.7). The optimal NLR cut-off value to predict retinopathy incidence was 3.04. After accounting for competing risks at 10 years, the cumulative incidence of DR and deaths without DR were 50.7% and 21.9%, respectively. NLR was associated with incident DR in both Cause-specific hazard (CSH = 1.63; 95% CI: 1.28-2.07) and FGR models the subdistribution hazard (sHR = 2.24; 95% CI: 1.70-2.94). Both age and HbA1c were found to modulate the association between NLR and the risk of DR. CONCLUSIONS: The current study suggests that NLR has a promising potential to predict DR incidence in the Scottish population, especially in individuals less than 65 years and in those with well-controlled glycaemic status.

A Meta-Analysis of the Genome-Wide Association Studies on Two Genetically Correlated Phenotypes Suggests Four New Risk Loci for Headaches.

Headache is one of the commonest complaints that doctors need to address in clinical settings. The genetic mechanisms of different types of headache are not well understood while it has been suggested that self-reported headache and self-reported migraine were genetically correlated. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on the self-reported headache phenotype from the UK Biobank and the self-reported migraine phenotype from the 23andMe using the Unified Score-based Association Test (metaUSAT) software for genetically correlated phenotypes (N = 397,385). We identified 38 loci for headaches, of which 34 loci have been reported before and four loci were newly suggested. The LDL receptor related protein 1 (LRP1)-Signal Transducer and Activator of Transcription 6 (STAT6)-S hort chain D ehydrogenase/R eductase family 9C member 7 (SDR9C7) region in chromosome 12 was the most significantly associated locus with a leading p value of 1.24 × 10-62 of rs11172113. The One Cut homeobox 2 (ONECUT2) gene locus in chromosome 18 was the strongest signal among the four new loci with a p value of 1.29 × 10-9 of rs673939. Our study demonstrated that the genetically correlated phenotypes of self-reported headache and self-reported migraine can be meta-analysed together in theory and in practice to boost study power to identify more variants for headaches. This study has paved way for a large GWAS meta-analysis involving cohorts of different while genetically correlated headache phenotypes. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s43657-022-00078-7.

Epidemic Landscape and Forecasting of SARS-CoV-2 in India.

BACKGROUND: India was one of the countries to institute strict measures for Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) control in the early phase. Since, then, the epidemic growth trajectory was slow before registering an explosion of cases due to local cluster transmissions. METHODS: We estimated the growth rate and doubling time of SARS-CoV-2 for India and high burden states using crowdsourced time series data. Further, we also estimated the Basic Reproductive Number (R0) and Time-dependent Reproductive number (Rt) using serial intervals from the data. We compared the R0 estimated from five different methods and R0 from SB was further used in the analysis. We modified standard Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) models to SIR/Death (SIRD) model to accommodate deaths using R0 with the sequential Bayesian method for simulation in SIRD models. RESULTS: On average, 2.8 individuals were infected by an index case. The mean serial interval was 3.9 days. The R0 estimated from different methods ranged from 1.43 to 1.85. The mean time to recovery was 14 ± 5.3 days. The daily epidemic growth rate of India was 0.16 [95% CI; 0.14, 0.17] with a doubling time of 4.30 days [95% CI; 3.96, 4.70]. From the SIRD model, it can be deduced that the peak of SARS-CoV-2 in India will be around mid-July to early August 2020 with around 12.5% of the population likely to be infected at the peak time. CONCLUSION: The pattern of spread of SARS-CoV-2 in India is suggestive of community transmission. There is a need to increase funds for infectious disease research and epidemiologic studies. All the current gains may be reversed if air travel and social mixing resume rapidly. For the time being, these must be resumed only in a phased manner and should be back to normal levels only after we are prepared to deal with the disease with efficient tools like vaccines or medicine. KEY POINTS: . QUESTION: What are the estimates of infectious disease parameters of early phase of novel SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in India? FINDINGS: Incidence pattern SARS-CoV-2 shows possible evidence of community transmission. However, the estimated Basic Reproductive Number (R0) is relatively lower than those observed in high burden regions (range 1.43-1.85). Our simulation using susceptible-infectious-recovered/death model shows that peak of SARS-CoV-2 in India is farther than currently projected and is likely to affect around 12.5% of population. MEANING: The lower estimated R0 is indicative of the effectiveness of early social distancing measures and lockdown. Premature relaxation of the current control measures may result in large numbers of cases in India.